Friday, June 27, 2014

Some encouraging signs, but plenty of work for O'Neill.

With twenty-seven different players used in varying formations, and at least ten squad regulars absent through injury, it is difficult to gain any real insight, nor draw too many conclusions, from Ireland’s summer friendlies. The results have not inspired much confidence, and very few of the fringe players emerged with full credit. The clear positives from the Italian game in Craven Cottage were somewhat mitigated by a 5-1 thrashing against Portugal - another blot on the record books for a bedraggled and decimated Irish squad.

The game against Turkey was a drab affair; a typical end-of-season kickaround, with little urgency or enthusiasm on show from either team. Italy provided a more entertaining contest in London, with Ireland employing a high-pressing game which rattled their more seasoned opponents. The Italian side may have been experimental, with fringe players auditioning for a World Cup squad place, but Prandelli's team still boasted more reputable talent and pedigree than any side we will play in Euro 2016 qualification, bar Germany. Ireland’s performance was encouraging. David Meyler and Jeff Hendrick were able combatants in midfield, using their athleticism to press and harry the Italians - but they were also technically proficient enough to move the ball with more precision and adventure than we have seen from an Irish midfield in some time. Such mobility and passing ability was a huge contrast from the stodgy performances of Whelan and Wilson against Turkey, and both players should be relegated to the status of emergency back-up in central midfield. Stephen Quinn hit the bar late on, a chance missed to claim a significant scalp. 

With the likes of O’Shea and Coleman being excused from the USA tour, and Dunne, St. Ledger, O’Brien, Delaney and Clark also in absentia, the Irish defence had a slipshod look in the Costa Rica and Portugal games. Stephen Kelly won a few more caps, giving absolutely no reason why he should add any more. Richard Keogh also struggled in the two games, with Stephen Ward returning for the Portugal game to catastrophic effect. Though Shane Duffy did little wrong on his long-awaited début, Ireland looked genuinely atrocious in defence, and parts of the US tour were as bad as any performance we have seen from Ireland under Staunton or Trapattoni. The Italian, for all his flaws, realised that defending as a team was a good starting point for an international side – O’Neill and Keane still need to implement a defensive system that all players can adequately adhere to.

O’Neill and Keane will have learned from the four games – particularly with regard to the areas that need strengthening, and the players who are simply not up to international football. Defence is a worry, and with Wilson hopefully restored to left-back instead of the hapless Ward, and Coleman indispensable at right-back, an effective centre-back partnership still needs to be settled upon. O’Shea ended the season strongly for Sunderland, and will be first-choice. If Dunne starts the season well for QPR, he will rightly be in the frame, despite his advancing age - 35 in September. If St. Ledger finds a club of any decent standing, his experience will be useful, while Joey O’Brien can not be ignored if fit. Ciaran Clark has a lot to do, particularly with the arrival of Senderos at Aston Villa, but he remains one of precious few youthful options. Certainly, neither Pearce nor Keogh gave any reason in the friendlies to be considered above the more experienced incumbents, but there are a lot of ‘if’s about Ireland’s defensive options going into the new campaign. Paul McShane can probably feel confident about regaining his place in the squad in the autumn.

Though Meyler and Hendrick were good in parts, McCarthy and Gibson should start in the autumn, while Whelan and Green’s jittery performances against Costa Rica should see them slip down the pecking order. Both Gibson and Robbie Brady will hope to hit the ground running in the Oman game, as it will be their only chance to stake a claim for the starting XI before Georgia. A fit Brady would add set-piece ability and a goal threat from midfield, both badly needed. McGeady was his usual self against Italy, both dazzling and frustrating in equal measure, while McClean – despite his well-taken goal against Portugal – is still too one-dimensional and one-footed to instil confidence – something of a Kilbane-lite. Pilkington showed against Italy that he has plenty of ability, but needs to maintain consistency. With Stephen Quinn also providing a wide option, the wing is not necessarily a problem area, but goals are an issue for this team, and Brady seems the most likely player to step up and shoulder that responsibility.

The forward options are a significant worry, given the lack of goals of late. If O’Neill is to persist with a 4-5-1 formation, it is safe to assume Hoolahan will operate in the hole behind the striker – perhaps with a fit Andy Reid, Brady or Stephen Quinn providing backup. While he must now be an automatic starter, Hoolahan will need to find a decent club in the summer. Long-time admirers Aston Villa would be a good fit – otherwise, the Championship beckons, and at 32, his departure from top-tier football would surely be a one-way trip. The club careers of Stephen Hunt, Kevin Doyle and Andy Reid have never really recovered from dropping out of the top tier, and the Dubliner will need his agent to work hard this summer.

Up top, Shane Long simply needs to start scoring goals. Everything else is in place – he is fast, mobile, strong and combative, and capable of getting into good positions – finishing is the one exasperating chink in his armour. If a suitable cloning device were available to infuse Long’s positive attributes with Keane’s sniping instinct, Ireland would have a genuine top-class striker. Keane may start against Georgia, and it would certainly not be a travesty; however, there is a worry that he is living on borrowed time as an international striker. He was a passenger for long periods against Costa Rica, a missed penalty the only noteworthy contribution, and one fears that his time in the MLS could be blunting his instincts at a higher level (though it must be said, it hasn’t done Tim Cahill any harm). Doyle scored in the Costa Rica game, and should he find his goalscoring touch for a Championship club or better, he will remain an option; at 31, there is another effective campaign in him. Despite a fine finish as a sub against Turkey, Jon Walters was poor against Portugal, and his goalscoring record at club level is abysmal. Anthony Stokes could feel aggrieved for not getting more game-time alongside Hoolahan, as he is arguably the next most natural goalscorer after Keane, but you suspect that he will need to leave the SPL before his credentials are recognised.

In terms of formation, O’Neill deployed the old 4-4-2 against Costa Rica, to near-disastrous effect, proving its redundancy as a formation against any decent standard of opposition. The more flexible 4-5-1, with the high-pressing midfield tactic from the Italian game, will probably be in effect in Tbilisi. Judging on O’Neill’s selections to date, Forde should retain his place in goal, while O’Shea, Coleman and Wilson are nailed-on starters in defence. McCarthy and McGeady will start in midfield, with Gibson, Meyler, Hendrick, Brady, Pilkington and McClean fighting it out for the remaining positions. Hoolahan should start behind either Keane or Long. It is hardly a vintage Irish crop, but if their potential is harnessed, there is more than enough to be competitive in this group.

O’Neill is known as an outstanding motivator when the big day arrives, and should now know the futility of judging players solely on friendly performances in front of apathetic audiences, when players have other things on their minds. However, it takes a giant leap of faith to assume that the manager will magically coax the best out of this squad, and elevate the team’s performance to the fired-up intensity of, say, Celtic in the fondly-remembered European nights of the early 2000s. Friendlies are notoriously difficult to quantify; Brian Kerr had a superb non-competitive record, but his teams often seemed paralysed in big games against beatable opposition. Our magnificent 2002 World Cup campaign was preceded by home defeats to Greece and Scotland. Even Steve Staunton managed a 4-0 win away to Denmark before the death-throes of his horrific reign. We have but few scraps of evidence to go on. On the positive side, O’Neill’s selections have generally been without controversy. No-one has been neglected nor treated unfairly, and the players have generally been picked in suitable positions. However, the defensive system clearly needs fine-tuning, and O’Neill needs to be ruthless with certain players who have failed to take their chances. Not naming names, but we should not be selecting left-backs who are unable to defend, nor midfielders who lack the mobility or technique to play a high-pressing, fast-paced game.

The Italy game provided the most encouraging signs, but the age profile of our first-choice defensive options, lack of emerging talent in many areas, and the lack of a reliable alternative to Robbie Keane, are issues that O’Neill can do little about. The Portugal game really exposed Ireland’s vulnerability when shorn of key players in defence, and the fragile confidence of our more seasoned players, who are now sadly accustomed to bad beatings against the better sides. Though the midfield – so poor under Trapattoni – is on the way to being a more fluid and effective area, O’Neill’s biggest challenges will be to fix Ireland’s losing psychology, blunt attack and slipshod defending – jobs that, thus far, remain undone.