Concerns about Ireland's immediate future (August 2012)

The biggest indictment of Trapattoni from Euro 2012 was that the starting line-up against Italy contained nine players who started against Italy in Croker in 2009. Given that Duff was injured for that Croker game, and it looks like the only change Trap has made in three years has been to replace Kilbane with Ward - a forced change, in many respects. Italy, by contrast, had only four survivors from 2009 in their starting line-up (Buffon, Chiellini, Pirlo, De Rossi). Statistically, we had the oldest squad in the tournament. We now have a stagnant team in dire need of change, which has been an underlying fear despite our commendable results in the qualifying campaign.

Since 2009, we have had 14 friendlies to try out new players, and given out 14 new caps (Fahey, Green, McCarthy, Cunningham, Sheridan, Clark, Wilson, Walters, Cox, Ward, Coleman, Treacy, Forde, McClean), which doesn't exactly point to an unwillingness to try new talent. Unfortunately, some of our better up-and-coming players had to pull out of squads at times when they had a real chance to cement their places. Also, Gibson and Foley were given opportunities to push on into the starting XI, but they both 'fluffed their auditions' to an extent at home to Macedonia, and they weren't given much of a chance thereafter. It's not like Trap hasn't tried to reshuffle, but it just hasn't worked out for a number of individual players. On the other hand, Trapattoni has also been guilty of misjudgement of players in a number of positions; McCarthy as a 'free role' player, Clark and Wilson being ignored as utility options, Foley in CM, O'Shea at RB, unwillingness to drop Whelan or Andrews even when hideously out of form, picking Keogh as the midfield/forward utility option instead of trying Hoolahan, and keeping faith with Green and McShane in the squad. In this campaign, there will be no margin for error in our team selections. If we have players out of form or out of position while better alternatives are left on the bench or out of the squad completely, we will be punished.

As for the system, well, as has been pointed out on this and other threads, we have the same problem with Robbie Keane as England have had with Wayne Rooney; how do you leave out the top goalscorer? With 12 goals in 18 games in 2010/11, he had to be fitted in somewhere, and as he proved at Liverpool, he isn't well-suited to a lone striker or AM role in a 4-5-1 or 4-3-3 variant. Keane's presence has certainly dictated the shape of the team; Trap mused about using Keane in the 'Totti' role, but Keane's natural game is to play on the shoulder of the last defender - Keane has often looked confused when attempting to drop deep (Bulgaria away is a good example of this). Our last win against a mid-to-high seeded team was against Slovakia in 2007, when Keane was suspended and Staunton accidentally stumbled upon his best team; 4-5-1 with Duff, Ireland and McGeady playing behind Kevin Doyle. The extra man in midfield compensated for the fact that we had limited players in CM (Carsley and Kilbane) who both struggled in a 4-4-2 in that campaign. The change in formation is definitely workable for Irish players, and can pay dividends. Now that Keane is winding down his career, it's an ideal time to look at alternatives.

Where to from now? We can write Euro 2012 off as a bad experience. Sweden and Denmark had awful Euro 2000 campaigns, but qualified for most of the tournaments in the following twelve years. I'd be more than happy if we could do the same. The formation needs to change, and the squad needs some fresh blood; that's absolutely clear now. The current starting XI has stayed together for too long, and grown stale. We have a much wider pool of talent than what was available in 2008/9, and the likes of Wilson, McCarthy, Gibson, Hoolahan, McClean and Long should be central to the team's development, after having good seasons last year - not just fringe players. If Clark, Coleman, Meyler, McCann, Brady, Duffy, Cunningham and others make better headway at club level, it should be recognised and rewarded.

The next squad/team announcement is going to be very interesting, and could well define our campaign. If Trap keeps faith with 4-4-2 and fails to shake things up at full-back and central midfield, and continues to ignore club form, it'll be a long two years. I'm just hoping for change, and for the right changes to be made, and that our young players can step up to our expectations. Are the FAI right to keep Trap on? I would say a cautious and partly resigned 'yes'. As Sanchez and McLeish/Smith showed with NI and Scotland, a good club job is far more attractive these days than a mid-ranking international job. If the FAI are, as expected, to return to modest wage packets, our next manager will probably be someone with very little top-level experience, or someone with significant blotches of failure or mediocrity on their CV. Giving Trap the sack after qualifying for our first tournament in 10 years would make the Irish job seem like an extremely unattractive and thankless proposition, even for an accomplished and ambitious manager. Either way, it'll be a risk, and I suppose it's a case of 'better the devil you know' for the time being.