It's three years since Ireland stumbled to a dismal 2-0 win at home to Gibraltar.
Mick McCarthy had succeeded in bringing his unique brand of chip-on-shoulder stubbornness and resilience back to a beleaguered group of players, after the miserable end to O'Neill's reign. They were hard to beat (one defeat in ten matches by the end of his tenure), but equally difficult to watch. It was a limited side, shorn of any real creativity or attacking threat in the wake of Keane, Hoolahan and Walters's retirements. Coleman, Duffy and McClean were the heart and soul of the team, reflecting those qualities of aggression and determination that kept Ireland competitive in the group; McGoldrick provided flashes of quality up front in his thankless role, but service was sorely lacking. Whelan, Hendrick and Hourihane filled space in midfield, without offering any real authority, dynamism or creativity. Stevens was a constant source of anxiety at left-back. Robinson was marooned on the flank, under instruction to run around and put in crosses. Doherty was underused as a deputy right-back. Fringe players like Judge, Maguire, O'Dowda, Hogan, Collins, Horgan and O'Brien offered nothing. Shane Long, Robbie Brady and James McCarthy were done.
It was clear that Kenny would have a massive rebuilding job on his hands, and so it has proved. Kelleher, Bazunu, Travers, Omobamidele, Collins, O'Shea, Molumby, Cullen, McGrath, Knight, Idah, Parrott, Connolly, Obafemi and Ogbene have all made their first competitive starts under Kenny. Some of those mentioned will need to recover from injuries, or regain form, but the majority look like being part of Ireland's future; a potentially exciting few years, if the last two games are anything to go by.
The question remains about Stephen Kenny's competence in the role. The Armenia game was a miserable failure, and no amount of sophistry about XG, fatigue and unfavourable weather can spin it positively. Coleman looked physically shot in a young man's position at wing-back; Stevens looked hopelessly out of his depth on the other side. The three up front were disjointed, often seeming to get in each other's way, with no focal point for the attack. At home to an experimental Ukraine team, Ireland suffered again from this flawed formation - Cullen looked isolated in midfield, with Hendrick doing one of his customary disappearing acts; Ogbene and Robinson looked out of form, and so much ball was dying with Cyrus Christie and Stevens on the flanks.
The switch to 3-5-2 has been fruitful, with Knight and Molumby providing aggression and dynamism - and no little skill - in an area which badly needed such an injection. It's brought the best out of Troy Parrott, who has impressed with his movement, work-rate and awareness. In Obafemi, Ireland may have finally unearthed a worthy successor to Robbie Keane; his goal and assist against Scotland were of genuine elite quality. The formation change may also bring out the best in Idah and Connolly in the future, who should, on ability alone, be able to contribute more than the limited Scott Hogan. Connolly remains a big 'maybe', though.
Should Kenny have cottoned on to this earlier? In 2000, Mick McCarthy stumbled on his best XI after Mark Kennedy and Phil Babb got into trouble with the Gardaí; McAteer and Dunne came in to replace them for the Dutch game - the rest is history. Similar to Mick's early years between 1996 and 1999, there has been a lot of trial and error in Kenny's selections; now that he has found a satisfactory formation that allows us to be compact defensively, fluid in attack, and get the best out of our gifted youngsters, it's up to him to stick with it, develop it, and continue to find alternatives to the dead wood he inherited.
At goalkeeper and centre-back, Ireland now have an embarrassment of riches. Kelleher did little wrong in his four starts, and should be pushing Bazunu for his place. In Lodz, Dara O'Shea and Nathan Collins were colossal, and Lenihan is also now a live option as an alternative to Duffy and Egan. Wing-backs are an issue, but Doherty will strengthen Ireland on his return; McClean will have to do for the moment on the other side, until one of Bagan, Adaramola or even Tyreik Wright comes of age in the left-sided position. The Derry man deserved the captaincy last night for his tireless service, and the example he sets in his passion for the international game - but his defence is a major weak link, along with his noted limitations on the ball.
In midfield, Jayson Molumby seems to have finally come of age in a more compact midfield three - his athleticism has never been in doubt, but he seems to have regained the composure and decision-making that marked him as a future star at U-21 level. Knight is excelling in a deeper role; his use of the ball and dribbling ability making him more influential in Ireland's transitions, rather than being marooned as a wide forward. With Connor Ronan, Will Smallbone and Conor Noss next on the conveyor belt as playmakers, and McGrath still an option, a three-man midfield makes perfect sense.
Up front, our best prospects are more central than wide - Kenny has always loved a three-man attack, but Ireland are sorely lacking in out-and-out wide forwards, in the roles Elbouzedi and Connolly played for his U21 side. Ogbene will be an effective player for Ireland as a crowd-pleasing agent of chaos, much in the McClean mould ten years ago; however, his technical and passing limitations will probably stop him from having a top-level career. After a very effective autumn last year, Robinson has reverted to type as a frustrating forward with little end-product - not quick or creative enough for a wide position, not clinical, clever or powerful enough as a number nine.
It seems that the older players, those who toiled so ineffectively against Gibraltar in 2019, are still holding Ireland back. Coleman, Duffy, McClean, Stevens, Christie, Hendrick, Hourihane, Robinson and Hogan are the remaining links with the hoofball eras of O'Neill and McCarthy - something we'd rather leave in the past. Some of these men will have a part to play in the next two years, simply because of the lack of current alternatives in the top English leagues - but if the last two games have shown anything, it's that a gameplan which mixes traditional Irish aggression and bravery with 21st century, progressive football can only be implemented by trusting the fearlessness of youth. The older generation seems to be contaminated by the fear and passivity instilled by the British-style 'proper football men' of previous regimes, and if younger, better alternatives are too slow to emerge, games like the Yerevan debacle will continue to happen. Kenny needs to realise this. It was depressing to see Hendrick and Hourihane coming on yet again last night, particularly when the likes of Jamie McGrath and Connor Ronan - both sitting at home or on holiday - could have gained valuable experience. The manager needs to identify alternatives to the old brigade, and be brave enough to select them.
Is Stephen Kenny the only manager in the world who could possibly get the best out of this young squad? No. Is he the only one within the FAI's price range? Probably not, with a bit of vision and imagination. But with Chris Hughton, Roy Keane, Robbie Keane and Neil Lennon still among the bookie's favourites to succeed Kenny, the FAI are probably better-served sticking with their man. If September represents another backwards step, hard questions will be asked about his decision-making, and why there seems to be so much trial-and-error; if his squad building has been methodical, or simply a series of happy accidents. But the last two games were of a level not seen from an Irish team since 2016, and will save his job.
The inconsistency is annoying - how can we have performed so poorly in the first two games, when the players showed such prowess in the second two? It could be an issue of Kenny's competence; being more reactive than proactive; lacking in real decisiveness; failing to see solutions until it's too late, and points have been dropped. It could be the inevitable travails of a small footballing nation with no established elite-level players, as it continues its most painful of transitions. It could be a bit of both. Moments like Obafemi's rocket and Collins's Beckenbauer impression could be mere flashes in the pan, or the start of something special. September won't be boring, at least.
